By Dylan Rivera, The Oregonian
Real estate developers should quit and go play golf for three years, and owners of office space will make only cynical nods at efforts to improve energy efficiency in the nation’s apartments and workplaces.
Those are some of the points raised in the annual ‘Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2010′ report – an encyclopedic compilation of forecasts, recent market trends and gossip compiled by PriceWaterhouseCoopers and the Urban Land Institute. The report will have its Portland debut at a breakfast event on Tuesday.
The forecast addresses all sectors of commercial real estate, including office buildings, warehouses, apartments and hotels. It doesn’t forecast housing, though the report says housing will lead the eventual recovery in real estate markets.
Markets will favor the major metro areas such as New York and Los Angeles, but also Washington D.C., which has been buoyed by large government spending and employment. The report says Portland’s apartment market is less dismal than most.
Overall, however, the report says, “Portland plays second fiddle to Seattle, growth controls keep the market in reasonable supply-demand balance and help foster a 24-hour, urban environment.”
The report suggests real estate developers would be best served to go play golf for three years: “Write Off the Year, as Well as 2011 and Probably 2012. You can close up shop, hit the links, convert operations to asset and property management, or become a workout specialist like everyone else.”
The report includes a cynical assessment for the state of Earth-friendly “green building” trends.
“Green has been tabled for now,” says a leading institutional investor quoted in the report. “The recession makes it less of a priority and nobody has extra money to spend retrofitting.”
This, despite a burgeoning trend among Portland area office building owners to retrofit their buildings in line with the U.S. Green Building Council’s Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design, or LEED, program.
Most interviewees expected developers to seek LEED certification for future new buildings, but only because the market and office tenants’ interest in good public relations will force them into it.
“Tenants want reductions in energy costs and big companies need cover for their corporate responsibility statements,” one of the report’s interviewees said.
- Businesses that rent office space will seek out buildings with good air ventilation systems, “especially when they cram more employees into tighter quarters.”
- Investors realize that “a green story” helps lease space faster even if “tenants won’t pay more for it.”
- They expect that “when they go and sell a property in five or ten years they can fetch a bigger price” than comparable space without green features.
- At the very least, “owners can find savings and gain good PR by instituting recycling programs and entering performance contracts with lighting suppliers to share in energy reduction costs.”
- Even with all the cynicism, the report says a “minority view” holds that green amounts to “trendy,” “overblown marketing”: “Just be efficient managing your operations, the rest is BS.”
The report does call for investor confidence in areas that offer “24-hour” neighborhoods, where people can live, work and play in close proximity. It urges a flight away from outer ring, auto-dependant suburbs. That would seem to boost Portland’s prospects, and policies advocated by Metro and other local agencies seeking to concentrate growth in “regional centers” and “corridors.”
A Portland unveiling for the report is set for Tuesday, 7:30 – 9 a.m., at the Governor Hotel, 614 S.W. 11th Ave. in Portland.
Speakers at the event include Dean Schwanke, Senior Vice President for Publications at the Urban Land Institute and an author of the “Emerging Trends” report; Metro Council President David Bragdon, and Tim Priest, President and Chief Executive Officer of Greenlight Greater Portland, an economic development group.
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