Ultimate Open House


Public Transportation Not a Big Factor Behind Housing Choices

December 22, 2009

Filed under: Builder's Corner, Building Science — uoh @ 11:41 pm

Without a major shift in public attitudes toward using public transportation and driving less, there are limits to how far new public transportation systems and transit-oriented development can go in reducing traffic flow on local streets and highways, according to new research by economists at NAHB.

Relatively few home buyers and renters choose a neighborhood because of its proximity to public transportation, the study found.

Based on data from the Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau, the NAHB study on “Household Type, Housing Choice and Commuting Behavior” found that relatively few married couples with children consider public transportation when selecting a neighborhood, and that they are likely to own more cars and travel more miles to work than other types of households.

Married couples, the research showed, are more likely to settle in a particular neighborhood because they like its appearance or it’s the location of a home they particularly like. One-person households, on the other hand, care about finding a location near where they work more than anything else.

Economists at NAHB note that these results have implications for land use planning — suggesting, for example, that different types of housing are needed to serve different types of households, and that the appropriate mix of housing in a transit-oriented development may differ from the mix needed to serve the local labor market as a whole.

The Size of City Blocks

Focusing on another aspect of the built environment, the study investigated the relationship between commuting patterns and the size of city blocks.

In the absence of other types of consistently complied data, block size is routinely used by academic researchers to measure street accessibility and interconnectivity.

Tracts with the smallest blocks — and therefore, at least theoretically, the best connected and most accessible streets — have the highest percentage of people walking and bicycling to work, according to the research. However, under the best of circumstances, cyclists and walkers never exceed 10% of the commuting population.

Smaller blocks also lead to shorter commuting times, the data suggested; at least until the average block size falls to 50,000 square feet. When blocks are smaller than that, the trend is reversed and commuting time starts to increase.

The study concluded that commuting times are longest in tracts with an average block size of under 20,000 square feet, indicating that there are limits on how small it would be desirable to make blocks in new residential developments.


Obama Home Energy-Efficiency Effort Could Boost Recovery

December 18, 2009

Filed under: Builder's Corner, Green — uoh @ 11:43 pm

NAHB on Dec. 15 commended President Barack Obama as he proposed a new initiative to create jobs and make today’s homes more energy-efficient.

In a speech that morning at a Home Depot in the suburban Washington, D.C. area, the President called on Congress to extend energy-efficiency tax credits for home owners as part of an $8 billion effort to reduce energy use.

“This is the kind of thinking that is going to get America back to work — and make a big difference in many home owners’ monthly utility bills,” said NAHB Chairman Joe Robson.

NAHB estimates that 11,000 jobs, $527 million in wages and salaries and $300 million in business income are generated by every $1 billion in new remodeling and home improvement activity. “That’s a huge impact just in the short run. And in the long run, the energy savings for participating home owners can be quite significant,” Robson said.

“This also bolsters a very important message and something we have been saying for years: If we really want to make an impact on the nation’s energy use, we need to take significant steps to make the existing housing stock more efficient,” Robson said.

He pointed out that state and local home builders associations affiliated with NAHB can be instrumental in the effort to weatherize older homes and make them more energy-efficient.

For example, the Builders Association of Minnesota served as the conduit for federal stimulus program funds provided to the state for its energy-efficiency programs. The association trained nearly 1,000 remodelers and other residential contractors and funneled the money to 1,300 Minnesota home owners to help them make needed improvements.

Minnesota home owners got extra incentives for choosing projects like attic insulation, which some consumers often overlook, but when combined with incentives can bring a payback on utility bills within a year or two, depending on the climate.

To read a related story in this issue of NBN, click here.

“President Obama is right that these kinds of projects don’t seem ‘sexy,’ but saving money is very attractive, and so is providing jobs,” Robson said.

“These are efforts that the Administration should consider on a much larger scale,” he continued. “They provide employment, stimulate the economy and help us reduce our dependence on fossil fuels; that’s three great outcomes. NAHB can help make this happen all over the country.”

Last month, the White House Council on Environmental Quality invited NAHB to explain how home builders, product manufacturers and remodelers can be part of the Administration’s “Recovery Through Retrofit” solution with programs like Minnesota’s.

“We’re anxious to help with these efforts,” Robson said. “It’s what our members do, and do well — and they all want to get back to work.”


Housing rebound unlikely soon Experts predict ‘tedious’ recovery for Portland area

December 3, 2009

Filed under: Ulitmate Home Shoppers, Your Home Your Money — uoh @ 8:23 pm

By Jon Bell, The Portland Tribune

State economist Tom Potiowsky turned to lyrics from a classic song by The Doors to sum up his outlook Wednesday morning during the Home Builders Association of Metropolitan Portland’s annual housing forecast.

“I’ve been down so long that it looks like up to me,” he said. “It looks like things are getting better, but we’re still at the bottom of the pit.”

The economist’s take on the current state of the state worked equally well on every topic touched at the event, from the unemployment rate and housing starts to job growth and housing permits. Joining Potiowsky as presenters were Jerry Johnson, a local real estate consultant with Johnson Reid LLC and David Crowe, chief economist for the National Association of Homebuilders.

Both Reid and Crowe echoed Potiowsky’s views. The national recession is over, Crowe said, but because the housing market has dropped off so dramatically and because credit markets are still “healing,” the recovery will not be as strong as those seen after prior recessions.

“It will be a slow, tedious recovery,” Crowe said. “It will still be a recovery, but it will be nowhere near as fast or as comfortable as you’d like to have it.”

Here in Oregon, the recession is either over or just about to be, Potiowsky said. But don’t expect any huge changes in hiring until well into 2010. Employers first need to jettison the furlough days, shift cuts and other measures they’ve put in place to keep their heads above water. The state also has the fifth-highest unemployment rate in the nation – 11.3 percent – and the seventh-slowest rate of job growth.

With all this as backdrop, Potiowsky noted that the housing market in Oregon will continue to remain fragile. Housing starts improved in the second half of 2009 but are still 40 percent below historical averages and aren’t expected to return to those levels until 2015.

He also noted that permit levels, particularly for multifamily housing units, have been hammered as well. For example, the entire state saw only four permits for multifamily housing units in September – and all of those were for duplexes.

Although housing prices in the Portland region have fallen of late, Johnson said the area is still 5 percent above historical trend lines and it appears as if pricing adjustments will have been played out by early 2010. That said, he noted that 23 percent of mortgages in Oregon are now considered “negative equity mortgages,” which means people owe more on their houses than they’re worth.

Some of the more positive news to come out of the presentation included the fact that Portland’s housing inventory levels are down to between two and four months for new homes and between nine and 11 months for all homes. In addition, interest rates are expected to remain low, topping out at 6 percent by 2011.

“We should have a better forecast next year,” Johnson said at the end of the event, “because, again, there is nowhere to go but up.”


Portland area housing prices still looking for a bottom

Filed under: Ulitmate Home Shoppers, Your Home Your Money — uoh @ 7:37 pm

By Ryan Frank, The Oregonian

One year ago, Portland real estate consultant Jerry Johnson stood before a room of home builders anxious to know when housing prices would strike bottom. 
 
About September, he had predicted, a median price of $261,000 would be the market’s bottom. That would have been 14 percent  off the boom-time peak of $302,000. 
 
On Wednesday, Johnson revised his view in a speech to the same home builders. Just slightly. 
 
Home prices, he now believes, will tumble to about $230,000 — down 24 percent from their peak — before climbing out of the recession. “We didn’t expect it would be as bad as it got,” Johnson said after his annual presentation to the Home Builders Association of Metropolitan Portland. 
 
What changed in a year? 
 
Job losses and depressed consumer confidence, Johnson said. 
 
The region lost 60,000 jobs in just one year, sparking a slew of housing market troubles. 
 
People who got pink slips obviously stopped buying. But even people who have jobs, good paying jobs, worry about losing their paychecks. They also put off buying a starter home or moving to a bigger one. 
 
New jobs attract migrants from other regions and states. But with layoffs flying, fewer people have reason to move to town. 
 
“It’s not just the job losses,” Johnson said. “It’s the perception of doom. Those are big, big numbers.” 
 
Johnson was joined by David Crowe,  chief economist at the National Association of Home Builders,  and Tom Potiowsky,  the state government’s chief economist, at the home bulders’ meeting. All three men painted a similar economic and housing market picture. 
 
The market’s bottom, they said, has either arrived or is close at hand. The recovery will, to use Crowe’s words, be slow and tedious. 
 
Johnson said the Portland region doesn’t have a an oversupply of homes on the market.The inventory of unsold homes reached a peak last winter and has generally fallen since then. With tightened supply, Johnson said he expects prices to stabilize. But with the continuing job losses, “you completely chill the absorption pace,” he said. 
 
A rising foreclosure rate isn’t helping . Nearly one in 10 Oregon homeowners was late on at least one mortgage payment this fall, the highest rate on record. 
 
Through October, the region’s median home price was at $245,000, down 19 percent from the peak. Many economists have warned of further price drops of 5 percent to 10 percent into 2010. 
 
Johnson said he expects prices will hit bottom sooner. 
 
Based on Portland’s historic trends, Johnson said homes are about 6 percent overpriced and he expects those losses to wash through the market quickly. 
 
But he cautioned that could change if banks flood the for-sale market with bargain-priced foreclosured homes and the unemployment rate pushes yet higher. 
 
With most of his audience worried about the suburbs, Johnson gave a blunt and brief overview of the condo market (the all caps are his): 
 
“CONDO MARKET DEAD UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.”  


Portland: Best Running City in America

December 1, 2009

Filed under: Portland Style — uoh @ 6:05 pm

Get your running shoes on– Runner’s World named Portland “The Best Running City in America”.

See article here Runnersworld.com.