From Builderonline.com
Housing economists have long held that the housing rebound, when it comes, will be uneven. The markets that benefit first will be the ones with the strongest core dynamics; places where house prices never got out of hand, cities where a diverse and progressive employment base drives job creation, towns that continue to draw population despite the economic recession.
Now that the housing recovery is nearly upon us–most economists expect a full-fledged recovery to begin this year–it’s time to figure out which markets will be the front-runners. Based on last year’s performance, especially the level of building permits pulled in the fourth quarter, it’s already clear that some markets are poised to grow at a faster pace this year than others in 2010.
Green shoots may be sprouting in markets throughout the country, but which markets will flower first? That’s the question we attempt to answer with the Builder Market Health Index, compiled by Hanley Wood Market Intelligence, our market research arm. Market Intelligence (MI) first input 2009 data and 2010 projections for household formations, resale values, and job and income growth. Then, after sprinkling in some secret sauce to weight these drivers, it ranked by health the top 100 housing markets (determined by permits pulled in 2009).
Not surprisingly, many of the markets that topped our 2009 list are on the 2010 leader board, including most of the major markets in Texas, where low development costs kept a lid on house prices during the boom, and strong local economies provided a cushion from the blow of a national recession.
But Lone Star markets were eclipsed this time around by some relatively hot markets in the Carolinas, which accounted for seven of the top 20 spots. Many of the major cities along the Mid-Atlantic seaboard continue to benefit from a strong influx of people drawn by a comfortable way of life, affordable housing, and growing employment prospects.
As with last year, markets that hit the trifecta–having within their borders a state capital and a big university along with a diversified economy–dominate our list of hottest markets. A strong base of government employment, whether it be from the state or the military, has helped stabilize some markets through the housing recession. In many cases, the government is the biggest employer among the 20 markets on our list.
We present this data with one big caveat. These markets may be healthier than others, but they aren’t healthy in the way they were during the housing boom, when it was common to find rising population, employment, and income. Virtually every housing market still has at least one blemish. And for that reason only two received a rating of 50 or more, indicating they are truly healthy. That’s an improvement, though; only one scored 50 or higher last year.
Hanley Wood Market Intelligence, which took into consideration forecasts from Moody’s Economy.com and other sources, is looking for several of these healthiest markets to break out this year. A few of them witnessed dramatic increases in building permits pulled in the fourth quarter of last year, momentum that is expected to carry over into 2010. Several of the markets on this list are poised for double-digit growth. See all 20 markets here.
16. Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton, OR-WA
Market Health Indicator: 34.4
2009 Total Building Permits: 3,821
2010 Building Permit Forecast: 10,156
Builders in the Portland area are placing their bets on a strong recovery in 2010; they pulled 17% more permits in the fourth quarter of last year than they did a year earlier, with nearly all the strength in single-family. The locals are betting on some strong underlying demographics, including a projected 2% increase in household growth and continued in-migration from more expensive California markets. The industry doesn’t appear deterred by the region’s urban growth boundaries or its new eco-districts. Market Intelligence is predicting big things for Portland–an increase of 6,200 in building permits. While Portland’s Renaissance Homes became one of the first major builders to emerge from Chapter 11 proceedings, two others–Legend Homes and Pacific Lifestyle Homes–are still working on their reorganization plans.
